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Bills at Patriots spread, odds, picks and trends: Expert predictions for NFL Week 16 game

New England’s seven-game winning streak ended last week with a 27-17 loss to the Colts. The Patriots fell behind 20 points, courtesy of a blocked punt touchdown and a pair of interceptions by Mac Jones. The rookie QB managed three consecutive scoring drives to pull within three before the defense surrendered a 67-yard touchdown run to Jonathan Taylor just before the two-minute warning. More often than not, New England is going to win when it holds a team below 300 yards and allows two third-down conversions. But the Colts still managed over five yards per play while the Patriots took too long to find their offensive footing and made an uncharacteristic number of mistakes. The loss also eliminates New England’s two-game buffer in the AFC East. The Patriots opened as 1.5-point favorites at home against Buffalo, with first place in the division up for grabs.

The Bills snapped out of their funk, ending a two-game losing skid with a 31-14 win over the Panthers. Buffalo was the heaviest favorite to cover last week, closing as 14.5 point favorites. Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes, though the bigger development is the return of the run game. Devin Singletary led the way with 86 yards and a score as Buffalo topped 100 yards on the ground for the third time in four weeks – they had over 100 in each of its first five games. But to beat the Patriots, stopping the run is even more critical. The Bills have allowed at least 135 rushing yards in four of their past five games, and we saw New England dominate Buffalo on the line of scrimmage a few weeks ago. Odds, Over/Under, Moneyline

All odds from BetMGM. Odds updated at 8:20 p.m. ET Saturday. Click here for live odds. Storylines for Bills-Patriots

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(Photo of Josh Allen: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)

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