Estimating the Long-Term Epidemiological Trends and Seasonality of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China

Received 21 June 2021

Published 21 September 2021 Volume 2021:14 Pages 3849—3862

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Peer reviewer comments 2

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1 Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China; 2 National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 3 Center for Musculoskeletal Surgery, Charité–Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt–Universität Zu Berlin and Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany

*These authors contributed equally to this work

Correspondence: Yongbin Wang
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang, Henan Province, 453003, People’s Republic of China
Tel +86-373-3831646

Objective: We aim to examine the adequacy of an innovation state-space modeling framework (called TBATS) in forecasting the long-term epidemic seasonality and trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS).
Methods: The HFRS morbidity data from January 1995 to December 2020 were taken, and subsequently, the data were split into six different training and testing segments (including 12, 24, 36, 60, 84, and 108 holdout monthly data) to investigate its predictive ability of the TBATS method, and its forecasting performance was compared with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA).
Results: The TBATS (0.27, {0,0}, -, {< 12,4>}) and SARIMA (0,1,(1,3))(0,1,1) 12 were selected as the best TBATS and SARIMA methods, respectively, for the 12-step ahead prediction. The mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, mean error rate, and root mean square percentage error were 91.799, 14.772, 123.653, 0.129, and 0.193, respectively, for the preferred TBATS method and were 144.734, 25.049, 161.671, 0.203, and 0.296, respectively, for the preferred SARIMA method. Likewise, for the 24-, 36-, 60-, 84-, and 108-step ahead predictions, the preferred TBATS methods produced smaller forecasting errors over the best SARIMA methods. Further validations also suggested that the TBATS model outperformed the Error-Trend-Seasonal framework, with little exception. HFRS had dual seasonal behaviors, peaking in May–June and November–December. Overall a notable decrease in the HFRS morbidity was seen during the study period (average annual percentage change=− 6.767, 95% confidence intervals: − 10.592 to − 2.778), and yet different stages had different variation trends. Besides, the TBATS model predicted a plateau in the HFRS morbidity in the next ten years.
Conclusion: The TBATS approach outperforms the SARIMA approach in estimating the long-term epidemic seasonality and trends of HFRS, which is capable of being deemed as a promising alternative to help stakeholders to inform future preventive policy or practical solutions to tackle the evolving scenarios.

Keywords: HFRS, hantavirus, TBATS, SARIMA, ETS, trend, seasonality, time series analysis Introduction Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonosis as a consequence of the infection with several different families of Hantaviruses, which are predominantly carried and transmitted by the natural reservoir of rodents and can be exposed to humans via the urine, droppings, or saliva of virus carriers. 1 The clinical […]

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