Supporters always argue about which teams get the better of the VAR decisions in the Premier League, and this season we aim to give you the definitive answer.
It’s not just about the number of times a team gets a favourable VAR call or about how many goals are affected. What’s more important is when these VAR decisions take place, how they might have changed the course of the game and, crucially, whether that impact would ultimately have changed the final score.
ESPN brings you the VAR Effect Table . We’ve taken all 22 VAR decisions in the Premier League so far this season and calculated how they might have changed the outcome of matches. We’ll continue to track VAR throughout the season and find out who the true winners and losers are.
– JUMP TO: The losers without VAR | The winners without VAR How we work out the VAR Effect Table
We take only the first VAR overturn in each game, because the calculation considers that any subsequent VAR incident wouldn’t have happened because the whole direction of the game has been altered. (Think of it like a Marvel timeline, or the plot of any time travel movie.)
The VAR decision is then reversed to the original on-field call — so if a goal is disallowed for offside, it’s given as a goal.
If a penalty has been cancelled, it is considered to have been awarded and scored, unless the team in question has a penalty conversion record below 50% over the season. For instance, so far this season West Ham have missed both their penalties, while every other team but Man United has a 100% record. If below 50%, the penalty may be judged to have been missed.
If a team has been awarded a goal through a penalty or an incorrect offside through VAR, the goal is disallowed.
We then take into account a series of factors before settling on a predicted outcome:
Team form: Results in the previous six matches give an indication of how a team has been playing generally.
Time of incident: For instance, if an incident happens late in the game, it’s less likely that the scoreline would change again after this point.
xG at time of incident: This allows us to take into account which team has been creating the better chances and is in the ascendancy.
Team strength: As well as form, a team’s general strength plays a part. This takes into account league position, and a team’s goal-scoring and defensive records across the season. Impact of incident: For example, a red-card decision being reversed may change the outcome of a match.These results have then been used to modify the table and work out what impact VAR has had on teams’ positions this season.The table shows each team’s position after the amended results, with the arrows indicating if their league position is better or worse without VAR. THE BIG LOSERS WITHOUT VAR Four of the "Big Six" clubs drop points, showing they have enjoyed favourable […]